The month-long festival of democracy in Uttar Pradesh is coming to an end with the seventh and final phase of polling on March 7. Nine districts - Azamgarh, Mau, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Chandauli, Varanasi, Bhadohi, Mirzapur and Sonbhadra - with 54 seats will go to polls in this phase.

It is a prestige battle for PM Narendra Modi in Purvanchal.

While the main contenders claim to have already attained the majority mark, the presence of bigwigs Modi, Akhilesh-Mamata, Gandhi siblings shows it is still an open contest.

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Both the BJP and SP want to leave nothing to chance.

The Prime Minister has been camping for three days in Varanasi - his Lok Sabha constituency. He even held a mega roadshow in Varanasi on Friday.

Gandhi siblings were seen at the Kashi Vishwanath temple as Akhilesh Yadav gave a final push to SP's prospects by addressing a joint rally with Mamata Banerjee.

Samajwadi Party's alliance with smaller caste-based parties like SBSP, AD (K), Mahan Dal and JP(S) is aiming to make a significant dent in BJP's Non-Yadav OBC (NYOBC) vote bank.

In 2017, the BJP received 61 per cent of votes from these smaller caste groups, propelling it to the 300-seat mark. This means that out of every two voters that voted for the BJP in 2017, one hailed from the NYOBC community.

But this block is a nouveau vote bank that has not traditionally voted for the BJP. It has 76 subcastes with different needs, aspirations, leaders and demands. It is becoming difficult to keep the flock together and meta-narratives of Hindutva and anti-Yadav sentiment may not work as well as they did in 2017.

(Source: CSDS Post Poll Survey)

Rajbhar's desertion of the NDA and his decision to hop onto SP's bandwagon, coupled with the family feud within Anupriya Patel's Apna Dal, has further complicated matters for the BJP in Purvanchal. There is also Swami Prasad Maurya, whose exit could wean a few Maurya samaj voters from BJP.

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To negate the impact of these desertions, the BJP has roped in the NISHAD party, which enjoys measurable support amongst Mallahs.

In addition to SCs, Kurmis, Patels, Banias, Rajbhars, Nishads and Mauryas are in good numbers in districts where voting is to be held in the seventh phase. The minority population in these districts is 12 per cent, followed by the SC population at 24 per cent, and Brahmins and Thakurs at 20 per cent.

BJP won 33 out of 54 seats in these districts in 2017. This means that it was able to win 61 per cent of the seats up for grabs in this phase, excluding four seats won by SBSP. The BJP had, in fact, performed better in areas where minorities constitute a large chunk of the electorate (69 per cent), compared to districts in Purvanchal.

In the other phases (1-6), the BJP's strike rate was 82 per cent on average.

BJP won 33 seats in Purvanchal in 2017, the SP 11, BSP 6 and SBSP (which contested in alliance with BJP and is now with SP) 4 seats. Congress could not win even a single seat in this region.

In 2012, the SP won 34 seats in Purvanchal, a performance it hopes to repeat in 2022.

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It is also important to mention here that this phase witnessed BSP's best performance in 2017 (after Phase 2), followed by the SP. The BJP's vote share in Purvanchal stood at 38 per cent, followed by BSP with 26 per cent, SP with 22.5 per cent and INC with 6 per cent.

This is why even though the SP and BJP are attempting to make a dent in her Dalit vote, Mayawati and the BSP cannot be ignored in the Purvanchal region.

But the final phase, if the trend of 2017 is repeated, is likely to see low voter turnout along the lines of the sixth phase (59 per cent). This could mean a lower victory margin of over 22,000 votes against margins of over 29,000 votes in earlier phases.

Allies of the BJP and SP are contesting 30 per cent of the seats in the final phase. This is why their performance could prove to be very crucial on counting day.

OP Rajbhar and Anupriya Patel's mother are vice-captains of Team Akhilesh, while Sanjay Nishad and Anupriya Patel are vice-captains of Team Yogi.

BJP is contesting against the vice-captains of Team Akhilesh on eight seats and the SP is contesting against vice-captains of Team Yogi on 7 seats. At the same time, the vice-captains are head-to-head on only one seat.

The vice-captains would make or break BJP's and SP's prospects in this phase. Both captains are hoping that their respective vice-captains do not perform as the Congress did in Bihar, denting the prospects of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.

1) If SP gains 10 per cent vote share at the expense of BSP (-5 per cent) and BJP (-5 per cent)

2) If SP gains 15 per cent vote share, at the expense of BSP (-7 per cent), BJP (-5 per cent), INC (-2 per cent), Others (-1 per cent)

Note: 2 per cent vote share each has been added to BJP and SP vote share on account of NISHAD party and SBSP respectively, after adjusting for the above swing mentioned in the scenario analysis.

In Scenario 1, the BJP could lose up to 7 seats, while SP could gain 13, including 4 seats of SBSP. The BSP, on the other hand, could win 4 seats.

In Scenario 2, SP could come out on top of BJP, bagging 34 out of 54 seats, the same as its 2012 tally. The BJP could lose up to 13 seats.

In 2017, BJP's performance was the poorest in the Purvanchal region. Hence, the BJP is adopting a cautious approach, employing what can be termed a 'cocktail strategy' in the final phase.

This cocktail comprises a heavy dose of nationalism (playing out the success of Operation Ganga in evacuating students from Ukraine), Hindutva (showcasing Kashi Vishwanath corridor work) and strong leadership of M-Y (Modi-Yogi) at both centre (international relations) and state level (law and order).

To bring home the message that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the tallest leader of the OBC community, the BJP has given more representation to other backward castes than any other party.

Akhilesh Yadav, meanwhile, is highlighting how BJP neglected the NYOBC community - winning with their support in 2017, only to install a Thakur CM despite the fact that it was Keshav Prasad Maurya who did all the heavy lifting.

The SP has further accused BJP of ignoring pleas for a caste census and hatching a conspiracy to "end reservation".

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